Giffords and Kelly Tied at 46% in AZ-8 Hotly Competitive Race

A new poll conducted by Ayres, McHenry & Associates, a respected national public opinion research company, for American Action Forum shows Jesse Kelly tied with Gabrielle Giffords for AZ-8. This new poll indeed is very surprising because Kelly, a military veteran, is a newcomer to politics, and because AZ-8 has consistently voted 54% to 42% Democrat in 2000-08; even John McCain received a mere 52% in AZ-8 in his presidential bid in 2008. Kelly will face two-term incumbent Democrat Gabrielle Giffords and Libertarian Steven Stoltz in the general election. But if this new poll is right, Kelly’s new fresh appeal appears to be bringing a new opportunity for a Republican district.  See Poll Here

Five Republicans initially sought the nomination. Andy Goss dropped out in July, throwing his support behind Kelly. In August, Brian Miller suspended his campaign and said Paton was the only one left in the race who could beat Giffords. Both cited lack of campaign funding when they stepped out of the race.

“Kelly, who had been in the race for nearly a year, won decisively against Jonathan Paton. The big question mark in this race is to what extent the National Republican Congressional Committee will help Kelly, whose lack of a political résumé may not inspire the broad check-writing needed to compete with a well-funded Giffords. And the Giffords camp, to be sure, won’t make the same mistake that Paton did”.

According to POLITICO, Jesse Kelly is one of the true dark-horse kind of stories of Arizona politics this cycle because he really came out of nowhere,” said one longtime Arizona Republican consultant who has worked on races in Arizona’s 8th District during several cycles. Kelly has brought military-style discipline to a grass-roots campaign, earning serious credibility through his fundraising.

In a district that is 18% Hispanic, it will be interesting to see how Hispanics will react to Kelly’s strong stance on border security–see website. It is possible that his new fresh look and streak of military and fiscal conservatism, coupled with economic woes throughout the state,  might well be enough to turn around AZ-8.

http://www.votejessekelly.com

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